Nashville Mortgage Rates

Today, not any different from most of the days in the last three weeks; the bond and mortgage markets open, then spend the rest of the day sitting with very little trading.  Europe sets the tone and after those markets close, treasury and mortgage markets have little to think about these days.

This week was conspicuously absent of key reports on the economy, leaving markets to direct most attention to Europe.  Next week, there are a number of reports to consider;  nothing scheduled on Monday, later in the week April retail sales, housing starts and permits for April, capacity utilization and industrial production for April, May Philly Fed business index.  On Wednesday next week, the FOMC minutes from the 4/25 meeting will be closely read for clues about another easing move.  Still possible that the Fed will ease again to little avail for consumers, but it will serve to keep interest rates low- is it necessary?  The pros and cons are evenly balanced in debates.  Unless the Fed eases at the June meeting, it is not likely it will do so for the rest of the year with the elections in November.  We don’t believe another easing is necessary now unless there is another financial crisis and that isn’t in the cards at the moment.  Those long bonds are supporting an easing move, those worrying about the effects on inflation and more optimistic about the economic outlook oppose any more easing.

This week the 10 year note yield at 1.84% was down 4 basis points in rate;  mortgage backed security (MBS) prices for 30 year conventionals not much change, +15 basis points.  The Dow -218, NASDAQ -23, S & P -16.

MBS markets are being dragged along with treasuries although there hasn’t been much change this week.  Overall, it’s a great time to lock in if your closing is within the next 30 days, as the likelihood of further rate improvement is very low.   Check back next week for your next installment of Nashville Mortgage Rates Update.

Nashville Mortgage Rates

Is it sell in May, and go away?  An over-used phrase but it’s possible it may have validity.  In the last 3 years, stock indexes have fallen in May, now with the weakest jobs increase in six months and weaker global data as well as some of the recent U.S. data, investors are heading for the door today.  Concern that weakening economic data will drag stocks lower in May for a third straight year grew after Labor Department data showed payrolls climbed by 115,000 in April, the smallest gain in six months and less than the median economist forecast of 160,000.  Also, a purchasing managers index in Europe dropped to 46.7, below the initial estimate of 47.4.

April job growth, well below forecasts, but March and February were revised higher by a total of 53k.  Increased talk about another easing from the Fed after the employment data, but we still don’t think the Fed is willing to do another easing based on this and other softer data the past few weeks.  The Fed has done enough and unless there is serious decline in the economy, which at this point no one believes will occur.  The unemployment rate will generate political capital for the campaign where politics is anything but about reality.  8.1% looks good compared to 9.6%, however it is mostly smoke as potential job seekers are simply not looking anymore.  Jobs are out there, but they don’t match well for many that want more income and a more qualified job.  Better not to look than banging a head against a wall.

The take-away from the coming equity market decline is two-fold.  First, the key indexes and many of the actual stocks are over-inflated because investors large and small cannot find another place to invest and make even a dime.  The Dow on a 4 year high seems unreasonable based on economic growth and with Europe slipping deeper into economic decline.  Secondly, the historically warmer winter and spring this year in most of the populated country drove consumer spending out of its seasonal patterns.  That said, after the indexes take their punishment, it will be time to load up on good stocks.  Where we sit now is that valuations have finally become too high even for the most optimistic investor.

The 10 year treasury note, on the slam in stocks, has broken the 1.90% threshold- good news for rates.  Mortgage backed security (MBS) prices however didn’t break their resistance, not so bad news; today was dumping money into treasuries- much easier than moving in and out of MBS markets.  Technically, now that the 10 year has dropped below 1.90%, let’s start the counting.  As noted previously, the 10 year has never in its life been below 1.90% for more than 3 consecutive sessions.  Even when the 10 year crashed to 1.70% on Greece fears last September, the 10 couldn’t hold it; the first time on 9/23/11, the 10 year after hitting 1.70% in the next 3 days the 10 rose to 2.05%; the second time the 10 year fell to 1.72% on 10/4/11 the next four days it jumped to 2.10%.  Since then the 10 has dropped below 1.90%, 7 times but never was able to hold.  This time may be different; we discuss it because history does have an impact, but equally history isn’t the future.  The point is, be careful and don’t get too excited about these low rates continuing to decline.

More Nashville Mortgage Rates Updates coming soon!

Nashville Mortgage Rates

The daily pattern in the bond and mortgage markets continues the same as the last few days, the markets open and move around a little but by 10:00 both simply sit out the rest of the day with very little movement until 3:45 when prices improved slightly.  The 10 year note yield fell to 1.98%.  The stock indexes ended the day at their worst levels of the day.  U.S. 10 year notes headed for a 4th week of gains, the stretch of weekly increases since August 2011.  Treasuries were supported after a report showed China’s gross domestic product rose less than economists, encouraging speculation that global growth is slowing.

The benchmark 10 year treasury yields have dropped 6 basis points this week.  The four weeks of price gains is the longest winning streak since the week ended August 19.  Mortgage bond prices this week were up just 25 bps this week, hardly changing the rates since last week. Had the week ended yesterday, mortgage prices would have been unchanged on the week.  This week, the Dow declined 203 points, the Nasdaq -45, and the S&P -27 points.

This week was scant of any key economic measurements other than weekly jobless claims that jumped 13k to 380k and the previous week revised up by 10k from what was originally reported.  Much ado this week over the potential of another Fed QE (Quantitative Easing) move based mostly on weaker stock markets and global data showing some softness; no doubt it played a part, but we believe the more direct reason for the decline is U.S. long term rates has been another safety move into treasuries as increased fears of debt problems were re-heightened on Spain’s borrowing costs increased and concerns the ECB would have to start buying sovereign bonds again to keep the lid on the possible crisis.

Next week there are a number of economic reports that should clear the air somewhat; March housing starts and permits, March existing home sales, the Philly Fed business index, March retail sales and two reports covering the manufacturing sector.  Europe still holds a heavy hand in the bond market, more worries will push rates in the U.S. lower. The week will be rife with talk about what the FOMC meeting will conclude with its policy statement a week from next Wednesday.

How much lower will rates fall?  Two weeks ago I didn’t believe they would get to these lows, since then Europe is back in the mix with Spain now on the radar and recent economic data on employment has been much worse than we expected.  That said, there is a limit, and based on the past 6 months, 1.90% on the 10 year treasury yield should be about it, and mortgage interest rates possibly another 6 to 10 basis points lower.  Technically the rate markets remain bullish and not quite throwing off overbought momentum readings, in other words there is nothing technically that would suggest rates will bounce higher.  Fundamentally though, next week’s data will set the tone.

Check back with us for the next Nashville Mortgage Rates Update- have a great weekend.

Nashville Mortgage Rates

A very nice bounce in the interest rate markets after yesterday’s over-reaction to the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) minutes.  Yesterday, mortgage bond prices fell 81 basis points, and today mortgage prices recovered over half of yesterday’s hit (50 bps).  The 10 year note, the driver for mortgages lost virtually 100 bps in price, but today was back up about 50 bps, back to 2.24% yield.  In the minutes, the FOMC didn’t mention anything about another easing, and included comments that the economy was improving.    Not only disappointment that the Fed isn’t ready to ease, but comments that Europe’s crisis was waning, although still a concern, but not like it was from last October through February.

This morning’s March ISM services sector data was OK, but not quite s good as what had been thought.  The ADP estimate for increasing non-farm private jobs was right on forecasts, up 209k.  Tomorrow, weekly jobless claims at 8:30 are expected to be about unchanged from last week; 360k from 359k.  Friday, it’s the mother of all monthly data- the BLS employment data.  Friday will be interesting in that the stock market will be closed, but the bond market will be open until noon.

Yesterday’s reaction to the FOMC minutes was overdone; while the Fed isn’t ready for another easing move now, there isn’t enough reason for rates to increase much as long as the stock market slips.  The composite of technical indicators remain bearish but not in a major way.  We still want to suggest locking on loans that will close in the next two weeks, and suggest continuing to take advantage on any improvement on loans that will close in the next month.

Nashville mortgage rates are still great- but if you’re on the fence about refinancing or buying a home, think very hard about taking action soon, because rates will be going up gradually during the year and before you know it, rates will be .25% higher.  On a $150k loan amount, that’s $29/mo, or almost $350/yr difference.   We’ll be back next week with another Nashville Mortgage Rates Update- have a great Easter weekend.

Nashville Mortgage Rates

Treasuries and mortgages traded better again today, most improvement coming this morning and no changes this afternoon.  Mortgage prices are unchanged since 9:30 this morning.  Generally, trading was relatively quiet into the weekend;  the stock indexes opened weaker this morning, but turned mildly positive late morning and this afternoon.

After the spike higher in interest rates last week, the bond market this week rallied back some on renewed concerns over Europe’s economy and debts and China’s report on manufacturing slowing. Technically the bond market was oversold on the panic selling last week, now after the 10 year treasury yield has fallen 16 basis points from its highest level intraday on Tuesday (2.40% to 2.24%) we do not consider it oversold.

This week the 10 year note yield declined 5 basis points in rate, mortgage backed security prices were essentially unchanged from last Friday.  The Dow fell 152, NASDAQ up 13, and S&P 500 down 7.

Next week, the Treasury will auction off 2, 5, and 7 year notes.  The stock market holds court on the bond market next week, and as the week ended we heard a lot more conjecture that this week’s weakness may be the beginning of the long-awaited correction that many have been expecting.  Declining indexes will support the bond market as well as any additional issues arising out of Europe and China.  Most of next week’s economic data will be at the end of the week.

More Nashville Mortgage Rates Updates coming next week…

Nashville Mortgage Rates

This morning interest rate markets were touchy, trading weaker with the 10 year note unable to break below 2.00% and the mortgage market down in price.  At 1 PMT EST, Treasury auctioned $29 billion in 7 year notes, and the auction was a blowout, much better than expected.

Weekly jobless claims this morning were better than forecasts, unchanged against estimates of a increase of 7k.  Last week’s claims were revised higher, from 348k to 351k; not a lot of change but claims are declining implying businesses are not firing or laying off workers at the pace of the past 3 years.  The stock market has laid a big wager that the economy will continue to improve its growth at a faster acceleration than what the Fed data showed last month for 2012 and 2013.  The Dow still not able to crack 13,000 but it’s close.  The index higher again today adding concern in the fixed income markets.

In a sense, today is a special day;  for the first time in recent memory there was no news or any comments on the wires that dealt with Europe’s debt issues.  There were one or two back page stories, but not the usual constant quotes and comments from the multitude of “officials” in the region.  All’s quiet before the storm?  Greece got its deal that will keep it from defaulting in the next 2 years before it actually does default.  Next to step to the foreground, Portugal and Ireland; although Spain and Italy are in trouble with their debts,  their economies are large enough and stable enough to eventually dodge default.

Crude oil continued to increase today, now over $108/barrel.  Unless this is a short term spike, gasoline prices with exceed $4 very soon.  If so, the U.S. economy’s outlook will change with consumers cutting back hard on other spending.

This week’s treasury auctions were decent, except for today’s stellar 7 year auction that saw very strong demand.  Tomorrow we have the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index is expected at 73.5 from 73.0  At 10, January new home sales are thought to be up 2.4% to 315k annual units.

Visit us next week for the next installment of Nashville Mortgage Rates Updates…

Nashville Mortgage Rates

It was a good day in the treasury and mortgage markets.  The 10 year note, after stalling for a few days, is making another move lower on weak equity markets (through early afternoon at least) and the never-quite-finished Greek debt mess.  The 10 year note fell to 1.92%, down 6 basis points from yesterday’s close and now back under its 40-day moving average yield.

Just as there was breaking news about 2:45 CST that a Greek official was citing they would deliver the needed signed documents that EU officials had been waiting for, the Dow, which was down all day, shot back to unchanged on the report and the bond market held most of its improvements on the day.

Adding strength to the mortgage bond and treasury rally today was that January retail sales came in weaker than forecasts, up only .4% on expectations of an increase of .8%.  For the moment, it suggests consumer spending may not be strong enough to continue to propel equity markets.  Fed Chairman Bernanke said last week that the 8.3% January unemployment rate reported Feb 3 understates the weakness in the labor market since some people are leaving the workforce because they cannot find jobs, and others are taking part-time work because they cannot find full-time employment.  December retail sales were flat, now January is anemic.

Tomorrow there are a few economic reports to work through.  Unless the data meets or exceeds the estimates, equity markets will decline and support more yield declines in treasuries and to a lesser extent mortgage rates.   Happy Valentines Day and we will be sure to keep you abreast of the market with another Nashville Mortgage Rates Update very soon.

Nashville Mortgage Rates

The FOMC policy statement came early today, at 12:30 EST.  The reaction was not what we or most expected, the 10 year note yield fell from 2.06% to 1.92% within minutes; mortgage prices jumped 81 bps (huge, normal daily jumps might be 12 bps).  By 2:30, however, much of the improvement had eroded yet still better than recent levels.  The FOMC shocked and surprised markets with the comment that it would leave the Fed Funds rate alone, not until 2013 as it said in the past, but to at least the end of 2014.  No one expected that kind of extension.  As expected, the Committee also decided to continue its program to extend the average maturity of its holdings of securities as announced in September.

The Fed’s policy statement and economic forecasts being revised lower will take a day or two to fully discount in the markets.  The stock market today didn’t show much positive reaction to the Fed’s decision to keep rates low through 2014.  That market didn’t appreciate that the Fed once again lowered its GDP estimates for 2012 and 2013, and it wasn’t enamored with Bernanke saying the global economies are softening.  Finally in the last 30 minutes of trading the Dow did move up some.  It will however take a few days to see how markets take it all in; my view is that although the Fed has extended its low rate timeframe, nothing else changed. Interest rates declined but at the end of the day, not much.  We had forecast the 10 year would not move above 2.15%, given the events today that appears to be an even stronger outlook.  As for another run to the lows on the 10 year at 1.80%, that isn’t likely unless Europe’s mess actually leads to defaults.

Let’s see if the rally continues for tomorrow and Friday.  Will keep you posted with another Nashville Mortgage Rates Update this week if needed.

Nashville Mortgage Rates

More pressure on U.S. interest rates today, making it one of the worst weeks in a month.  The 10 year treasury yield at 2.02% was up 15 bps (.15%) in yield this week.  Mortgage bond prices this week fell 57 bps.   The bond and mortgage markets have been vulnerable to increases in rates; the low rates had been driven by weak economic outlook due to Europe’s potential and likely recession.  That is changing for the moment, and though still a slippery slope, the present view is the U.S. will improve even with Europe headed into another recession.  Secondly, Europe’s debt issues are presently seen as less a threat than what had been the case for the last few months.

Greece held serious meetings with its creditors, and according to reports, the meetings are seen as positive and will keep it from defaulting on its debt.  As with the U.S. economy, it is another slippery slope and can change quickly pending comments and news out of any official.

The housing sector saw sales up and for the first time in a long time, supply is coming down.  With gains sweeping all regions, sales of existing homes rose 5% to a 4.610 million unit rate in December, a 3rd straight month of improvement that has drawn supply on the market to 6.2 months.  This is the lowest reading on supply since 2006.

Next week the FOMC will meet; interest rate and equity markets likely will be flat into the meeting ending on Wednesday.  Nashville mortgage rates increased about .25% on the week and might be due for a little pullback next week.  Have a great weekend.

Nashville Mortgage Rates

This week of course, it is still mostly about Europe, the saga that won’t go away, and not likely for years.  Treasury rates ended last week at 1.87%.   Mortgage rates continue to decline in the MBS market, but lenders that buy the loans have not been pricing to the MBS market, holding prices lower than the market itself.  The increased “guarantee” fees to fund the 2% Social Security tax cut (financed by home buyers and refinancers) is causing disruptions in pricing.  Some lenders have used the fee increase to increase gains from originators by setting prices much lower than MBS markets trade—over and above making the prices adjustments for the fee increases.

This week a few key economic reports that will get traders’ attention: the PPI, CPI, Philly Fed business index, housing starts and permits as well as December existing home sales and weekly jobless claims are all on tap.  U.S. interest rate markets continue to to hold well, at the same time the long end of the yield curve including mortgages is struggling to keep a positive bias.  Europe’s travails and this week’s economic data should define whether interest rates will move lower.  That said, with rate increases due to Congress using Fannie, Freddie, and FHA to finance the social security tax cut, Nashville mortgage rates are not likely to fall much more, even if U.S. treasury markets improve somewhat.  We remain skeptical on the longer term outlook for rates, as rates are likely to increase a little this year with the economy improving.  The wild card now is the Fed (Europe is always a wild card on a day-to-day basis); last week there were some who were floating the idea of another easing move from the Fed, still a minority view however.  On the 24th and 25th the FOMC meets, and likely there will be discussions on the subject.

More Nashville Mortgage Rates Updates coming your way- stay tuned!

Nashville Mortgage Rates

Another day with little movement in the bond and mortgage markets.  The 10 year note continues to find support when it runs to 2.00% as it did early this morning, although supported technically, fundamentally there is nothing new that entices traders and investors to buy.  The mortgage market is testing its resistance level when the Jan price climbs to $103.13 as did this morning.  The equity market today was better, but it too is not running with much demand.  The debate over the outlook for interest rates is intensifying recently with traders sticking to treasuries, concerned that another show will drop in Europe, while investors are being pushed to stocks by many analysts and firms believing the U.S. economy will continue to improve.  The problem with that is that the employment market is still extremely soft and the housing sector (nationally) remains in peril with prices still falling;  in our mind it is difficult to build a case for much growth.

Tomorrow there are no scheduled economic releases; at 1 pm EST the Treasury will auction $21 billion on 10 year notes.  Will bidding take it over 2.00% yield?  At 2 tomorrow the Fed will release it beige Book with details from each Fed district;  normally there is not much new in the Book, however markets do pay attention.

Stuck, no real movement in the interest rates markets although the technical outlook, while fragile, continues to hold a very slight bullish bias.  The mortgage backed security markets have out-performed treasuries recently, not much better, but a little better.  Traders who are “long” treasuries are beginning to sweat a little, the longer one stays in a position that isn’t moving, the more concern increases.  Nothing but the same old chatter from Europe, just more meetings with rose-colored comments at conclusions.  No new economic date so far this week, we won’t see any data until Thursday.

Check back later this week for the next installment of Nashville Mortgage Rates Updates.  Oh yeah, and congrats to the Crimson Tide- you were unbelievable in your win over LSU in the National Championship last night.  Wished Saban would want to go to Tennessee, but I’m sure we couldn’t afford him anyway!